Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 North Dakota 141,069
2 Rhode Island 139,882
3 South Dakota 138,652
4 Utah 123,952
5 Tennessee 121,955
6 Arizona 118,495
7 Iowa 115,636
8 Nebraska 113,639
9 Wisconsin 113,468
10 Oklahoma 113,294
11 South Carolina 112,389
12 New Jersey 112,272
13 Arkansas 111,248
14 Alabama 107,669
15 Indiana 107,504
16 Delaware 107,217
17 Kansas 106,824
18 Illinois 105,642
19 New York 105,190
20 Idaho 105,047
21 Mississippi 104,799
22 Florida 103,991
23 Nevada 102,409
24 Minnesota 102,117
25 Montana 101,921
26 Georgia 101,327
27 Wyoming 100,459
28 Kentucky 100,157
29 Massachusetts 99,959
30 Texas 99,806
31 Louisiana 98,645
32 Missouri 97,896
33 Connecticut 95,148
34 California 94,706
35 New Mexico 94,300
36 Michigan 93,701
37 North Carolina 93,143
38 Alaska 92,404
39 Ohio 91,736
40 Pennsylvania 90,317
41 Colorado 89,212
42 West Virginia 85,443
43 Virginia 77,275
44 Maryland 74,034
45 New Hampshire 69,783
46 District of Columbia 67,583
47 Washington 53,181
48 Puerto Rico 51,680
49 Maine 45,538
50 Oregon 43,823
51 Vermont 36,782
52 Hawaii 23,142

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 Michigan 430
2 Colorado 326
3 Minnesota 313
4 Rhode Island 303
5 Pennsylvania 295
6 Delaware 274
7 Florida 250
8 Illinois 243
9 West Virginia 238
10 New Jersey 233
11 Alaska 225
12 Oregon 221
13 Massachusetts 210
14 North Dakota 207
15 Indiana 204
16 Washington 200
17 North Carolina 196
18 Maine 194
19 New York 182
20 Connecticut 176
21 South Carolina 174
22 New Hampshire 167
23 Kentucky 164
24 Montana 164
25 South Dakota 162
26 Maryland 160
27 Tennessee 158
28 Wyoming 149
29 Vermont 147
30 Wisconsin 147
31 Nevada 146
32 Puerto Rico 146
33 Ohio 144
34 Iowa 138
35 Virginia 138
36 Kansas 137
37 Utah 137
38 Georgia 133
39 Texas 131
40 Missouri 126
41 Nebraska 126
42 Louisiana 121
43 Idaho 116
44 New Mexico 116
45 Arizona 106
46 District of Columbia 106
47 Hawaii 87
48 Alabama 82
49 Mississippi 82
50 Arkansas 80
51 Oklahoma 76
52 California 47

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 2,876
2 New York 2,659
3 Massachusetts 2,554
4 Rhode Island 2,521
5 Mississippi 2,418
6 Arizona 2,380
7 Connecticut 2,271
8 Louisiana 2,233
9 South Dakota 2,223
10 Alabama 2,222
11 Pennsylvania 2,052
12 North Dakota 1,998
13 Indiana 1,980
14 New Mexico 1,940
15 Illinois 1,916
16 Arkansas 1,901
17 Iowa 1,885
18 Michigan 1,876
19 South Carolina 1,844
20 Georgia 1,842
21 Nevada 1,773
22 Tennessee 1,771
23 Texas 1,738
24 Kansas 1,724
25 Oklahoma 1,715
26 Delaware 1,668
27 Ohio 1,649
28 Florida 1,637
29 District of Columbia 1,565
30 California 1,562
31 Missouri 1,506
32 West Virginia 1,494
33 Kentucky 1,481
34 Montana 1,470
35 Maryland 1,446
36 Wisconsin 1,296
37 Minnesota 1,283
38 Virginia 1,261
39 Nebraska 1,223
40 Wyoming 1,221
41 North Carolina 1,208
42 Idaho 1,146
43 Colorado 1,116
44 New Hampshire 958
45 Washington 728
46 Puerto Rico 721
47 Utah 686
48 Oregon 595
49 Maine 583
50 Alaska 451
51 Vermont 394
52 Hawaii 339

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 Michigan 6
2 Oklahoma 6
3 Georgia 4
4 Minnesota 4
5 New Mexico 4
6 Pennsylvania 4
7 South Carolina 4
8 Florida 3
9 Illinois 3
10 Maryland 3
11 New Jersey 3
12 West Virginia 3
13 Wisconsin 3
14 Alabama 2
15 Arizona 2
16 California 2
17 Connecticut 2
18 Delaware 2
19 District of Columbia 2
20 Iowa 2
21 Louisiana 2
22 Massachusetts 2
23 Nevada 2
24 New Hampshire 2
25 New York 2
26 North Carolina 2
27 North Dakota 2
28 Ohio 2
29 Puerto Rico 2
30 Rhode Island 2
31 South Dakota 2
32 Texas 2
33 Arkansas 1
34 Colorado 1
35 Indiana 1
36 Kansas 1
37 Kentucky 1
38 Maine 1
39 Mississippi 1
40 Missouri 1
41 Montana 1
42 Tennessee 1
43 Utah 1
44 Virginia 1
45 Washington 1
46 Alaska 0
47 Hawaii 0
48 Idaho 0
49 Nebraska 0
50 Oregon 0
51 Vermont 0
52 Wyoming 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Chattahoochee Georgia 361,511 1 99
Crowley Colorado 358,687 2 99
Bent Colorado 272,907 3 99
Dewey South Dakota 248,133 4 99
Lincoln Arkansas 245,700 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 141,445 186 94
Richland South Carolina 110,489 995 68
York South Carolina 108,812 1060 66
Orange California 85,053 2176 30
Pierce Washington 54,198 2874 8

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Foard Texas 8,658 1 99
Galax city Virginia 8,035 2 99
Jerauld South Dakota 7,948 3 99
Emporia city Virginia 7,856 4 99
Hancock Georgia 7,686 5 99
Orange California 1,561 1821 42
York South Carolina 1,342 2075 33
Davidson Tennessee 1,341 2077 33
Richland South Carolina 1,311 2111 32
Pierce Washington 717 2741 12

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons